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Red173
191856.4
3380.6
413037.9
Blue176
10763.9
118966.3
171839.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170164120140180200173176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33
#5
80.60.0
80.780.6
Auto7.3
Teleop73.3
End0.0
red by 14.3
1189
#14
66.30.1
66.967.0
Auto1.1
Teleop65.2
End0.0
Second
1918
#45
56.40.0
56.556.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop56.5
End0.0
blue by 7.4
107
#15
63.90.1
64.464.5
Auto9.5
Teleop54.4
End0.0
Third
4130
#72
37.90.0
37.937.9
Auto0.4
Teleop37.5
End0.0
blue by 1.3
1718
#85
39.20.1
39.739.8
Auto2.7
Teleop36.5
End0.0