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Red179
233747.5
205468.9
191856.4
Blue182
360254.6
496141.4
6863.6
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17113450100150200250179182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2054
#20
68.90.4
72.172.5
Auto14.1
Teleop54.9
End0.0
red by 5.3
68
#11
63.61.9
61.363.2
Auto-0.7
Teleop64.4
End0.0
Second
1918
#45
56.40.4
51.351.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop56.5
End0.0
red by 1.8
3602
#17
54.61.9
48.049.9
Auto1.2
Teleop53.4
End0.0
Third
2337
#50
47.50.4
48.248.6
Auto2.9
Teleop44.6
End0.0
red by 6.1
4961
#49
41.41.9
35.237.1
Auto0.1
Teleop41.3
End0.0