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Red56
51759.9
569228.9
57148.3
Blue122
570622.8
497018.4
439148.2
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions368505010015020056122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5692
#11
28.90.5
28.028.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.1
End0.0
blue by 19.3
48.22.1
41.443.5
Auto1.1
Teleop47.1
End0.0
Second
5175
#36
9.90.5
9.910.4
Auto0.2
Teleop9.7
End0.0
blue by 12.9
5706
#25
22.82.1
20.222.3
Auto0.2
Teleop22.7
End0.0
Third
5714
#40
8.30.5
7.27.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.4
End0.0
blue by 10.1
4970
#29
18.42.1
18.921.0
Auto0.4
Teleop18.0
End0.0