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Red52
523023.8
471520.6
353710.5
Blue62
522311.8
570622.8
482719.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions474102060801005262

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5230
#18
23.80.2
18.118.3
Auto0.1
Teleop23.7
End0.0
red by 1.0
5706
#25
22.80.9
16.117.0
Auto0.2
Teleop22.7
End0.0
Second
4715
#33
20.60.2
16.016.2
Auto0.8
Teleop19.8
End0.0
red by 1.4
4827
#27
19.20.9
13.814.7
Auto0.8
Teleop18.4
End0.0
Third
3537
#38
10.50.2
13.814.0
Auto-0.5
Teleop11.0
End0.0
blue by 1.3
5223
#39
11.80.9
13.714.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop12.3
End0.0