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Red46
552312.8
43909.7
107618.3
Blue18
267610.6
568517.5
440510.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3736102030405060704618

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1076
#11
18.30.4
16.016.4
Auto0.8
Teleop17.5
End0.0
red by 0.8
5685
#13
17.51.0
18.917.9
Auto0.3
Teleop17.3
End0.0
Second
5523
#25
12.80.5
12.312.8
Auto0.0
Teleop12.8
End0.0
red by 2.2
2676
#30
10.61.1
11.710.6
Auto0.1
Teleop10.5
End0.0
Third
4390
#32
9.70.5
9.29.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.8
End0.0
blue by 0.6
4405
#37
10.21.1
7.05.9
Auto0.6
Teleop9.7
End0.0