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Red26
83013.9
52047.4
440810.8
Blue31
345230.3
52273.1
432712.2
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2645060801001201401602631

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
830
#23
13.90.2
15.615.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop14.2
End0.0
blue by 16.4
30.30.5
26.526.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop30.4
End0.0
Second
4408
#31
10.80.3
8.88.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.9
End0.0
blue by 1.4
4327
#35
12.20.3
11.210.8
Auto0.3
Teleop12.0
End0.0
Third
5204
#37
7.40.3
5.85.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.6
End0.0
red by 4.3
5227
#40
3.10.5
5.85.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop3.2
End0.0