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Red117
118930.4
400330.1
353614.8
Blue115
436231.6
438437.2
83017.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6882050100150200117115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.40.7
29.530.2
Auto1.6
Teleop28.8
End0.0
blue by 6.8
37.20.5
36.136.6
Auto1.1
Teleop36.1
End0.0
Second
30.10.7
29.229.9
Auto7.4
Teleop22.6
End0.0
blue by 1.5
31.60.5
30.531.0
Auto0.6
Teleop31.0
End0.0
Third
3536
#31
14.80.7
14.014.7
Auto0.9
Teleop14.0
End0.0
blue by 2.4
830
#24
17.30.5
16.216.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.6
End0.0