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Red40
553013.8
438437.2
568511.8
Blue14
47767.8
571021.7
3025.2
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions293702060801001201401604014

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.21.2
17.418.6
Auto1.1
Teleop36.1
End0.0
red by 15.5
21.71.9
16.014.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.8
End0.0
Second
5530
#18
13.81.2
5.46.6
Auto0.5
Teleop13.3
End0.0
red by 6.0
4776
#38
7.81.9
9.07.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.0
End0.0
Third
5685
#26
11.81.2
8.810.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.1
End0.0
red by 6.6
302
#40
5.21.9
12.010.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop5.5
End0.0