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Red59
353614.8
400330.1
436231.6
Blue20
511426.7
55616.5
191825.6
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions625401001505920

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.60.2
29.128.9
Auto0.6
Teleop31.0
End0.0
red by 4.9
26.72.3
26.424.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.8
End0.0
Second
30.10.2
22.822.6
Auto7.4
Teleop22.6
End0.0
red by 4.5
1918
#16
25.62.3
24.622.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop25.8
End0.0
Third
3536
#31
14.80.2
10.610.4
Auto0.9
Teleop14.0
End0.0
red by 8.4
5561
#34
6.52.3
6.13.8
Auto-0.4
Teleop6.8
End0.0