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Red10
52337.3
550218.1
353524.7
Blue26
499811.0
55277.9
421625.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions353301020405060701026

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3535
#17
24.71.2
12.611.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop24.8
End0.0
blue by 1.1
25.80.1
18.518.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop26.0
End0.0
Second
5502
#33
18.11.2
17.816.6
Auto0.0
Teleop18.0
End0.0
red by 7.1
4998
#36
11.00.1
10.510.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop11.3
End0.0
Third
5233
#38
7.31.2
4.12.9
Auto-0.5
Teleop7.7
End0.0
blue by 0.6
5527
#19
7.90.1
6.16.2
Auto0.7
Teleop7.2
End0.0