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Red70
440810.4
570413.6
85845.1
Blue68
354626.2
523513.0
70330.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51480204060807068

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
858
#3
45.10.9
33.934.8
Auto0.5
Teleop44.6
End0.0
red by 14.4
703
#11
30.70.8
17.818.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop30.9
End0.0
Second
5704
#39
13.60.9
10.411.3
Auto0.1
Teleop13.5
End0.0
blue by 12.5
3546
#14
26.20.8
24.125.0
Auto1.7
Teleop24.5
End0.0
Third
4408
#31
10.40.9
7.08.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop10.6
End0.0
blue by 2.6
5235
#24
13.00.8
9.410.2
Auto0.0
Teleop13.0
End0.0