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Red20
16849.7
366712.7
553325.2
Blue42
356820.9
353524.7
570413.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4543102030506070802042

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5533
#21
25.21.3
28.827.5
Auto0.6
Teleop24.6
End0.0
red by 0.4
3535
#17
24.70.1
12.012.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop24.8
End0.0
Second
3667
#23
12.71.3
8.57.2
Auto0.2
Teleop12.5
End0.0
blue by 8.3
3568
#22
20.90.1
22.522.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.1
End0.0
Third
1684
#34
9.71.3
8.67.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop10.0
End0.0
blue by 3.9
5704
#39
13.60.1
11.311.4
Auto0.1
Teleop13.5
End0.0