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Red144
54853.1
262016.9
341426.5
Blue118
296036.9
50340.2
3139.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions75530100150200144118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
548
#2
53.13.5
37.240.7
Auto0.8
Teleop52.3
End0.0
red by 12.9
503
#12
40.23.0
22.925.8
Auto0.2
Teleop40.0
End0.0
Second
3414
#16
26.53.5
15.919.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop26.7
End0.0
blue by 10.4
36.93.0
25.428.3
Auto0.4
Teleop36.5
End0.0
Third
2620
#28
16.93.5
21.124.6
Auto0.3
Teleop16.6
End0.0
red by 7.5
313
#38
9.43.0
10.113.1
Auto0.6
Teleop8.8
End0.0