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Red46
437617.8
498825.7
522926.7
Blue92
56229.1
31465.5
544713.0
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions56562040801004692

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5229
#25
26.70.5
23.322.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.8
End0.0
blue by 38.8
314
#1
65.51.6
46.748.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop65.6
End0.0
Second
4988
#14
25.70.5
19.919.4
Auto0.8
Teleop24.8
End0.0
red by 12.6
5447
#34
13.02.7
6.49.1
Auto0.1
Teleop12.9
End0.0
Third
4376
#24
17.80.5
13.212.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop18.0
End0.0
red by 8.7
5622
#39
9.11.6
6.88.4
Auto0.8
Teleop8.3
End0.0