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Red70
150626.5
548718.0
569715.6
Blue45
550930.7
56229.1
511018.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5553204060801007045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1506
#20
26.50.8
22.823.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.6
End0.0
blue by 4.2
5509
#10
30.70.6
28.327.7
Auto1.1
Teleop29.6
End0.0
Second
5487
#12
18.00.8
17.117.8
Auto0.8
Teleop17.1
End0.0
blue by 0.2
5110
#26
18.20.6
19.318.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop18.5
End0.0
Third
5697
#33
15.60.9
14.815.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.9
End0.0
red by 6.6
5622
#39
9.10.6
9.79.1
Auto0.8
Teleop8.3
End0.0