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Red92
368839.5
553516.4
440915.1
Blue118
506936.5
436821.4
437732.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions66666070809010092118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.51.2
34.335.5
Auto0.7
Teleop38.8
End0.0
red by 3.0
5069
#10
36.52.5
26.328.8
Auto0.2
Teleop36.3
End0.0
Second
5535
#34
16.41.2
20.621.8
Auto0.4
Teleop15.9
End0.0
blue by 16.5
4377
#13
32.82.5
27.129.6
Auto0.7
Teleop32.1
End0.0
Third
4409
#35
15.11.2
13.915.1
Auto0.6
Teleop14.4
End0.0
blue by 6.3
4368
#16
21.42.5
15.017.5
Auto0.6
Teleop20.8
End0.0