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Red154
561021.1
506936.5
276744.8
Blue78
387527.6
519422.1
167723.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8676406010012014016015478

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.83.3
42.946.3
Auto-0.8
Teleop45.6
End0.0
red by 17.2
3875
#26
27.60.1
29.629.5
Auto0.8
Teleop26.8
End0.0
Second
5069
#10
36.53.3
28.932.2
Auto0.2
Teleop36.3
End0.0
red by 13.0
1677
#27
23.50.1
30.029.9
Auto0.0
Teleop23.5
End0.0
Third
5610
#20
21.13.3
15.418.8
Auto0.4
Teleop20.7
End0.0
blue by 1.0
5194
#23
22.10.1
20.420.3
Auto0.2
Teleop21.9
End0.0