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Red65
567611.6
387527.6
440915.1
Blue73
518210.0
125417.3
437732.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5654204060801006573

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3875
#26
27.60.4
29.529.9
Auto0.8
Teleop26.8
End0.0
blue by 5.2
4377
#13
32.80.8
29.830.6
Auto0.7
Teleop32.1
End0.0
Second
4409
#35
15.10.4
15.315.8
Auto0.6
Teleop14.4
End0.0
blue by 2.3
1254
#30
17.30.8
17.318.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop17.5
End0.0
Third
5676
#38
11.60.6
12.112.7
Auto0.7
Teleop10.9
End0.0
red by 1.6
5182
#39
10.00.8
10.010.8
Auto1.0
Teleop8.9
End0.0