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Red24
55774.9
170110.3
516722.5
Blue2
36679.7
50086.6
509012.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions38340206080100120140242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.51.2
14.112.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop22.6
End0.0
red by 9.7
5090
#17
12.82.8
14.211.4
Auto0.1
Teleop12.7
End0.0
Second
1701
#33
10.31.2
15.814.6
Auto0.7
Teleop9.7
End0.0
red by 0.6
3667
#34
9.72.8
12.69.8
Auto0.3
Teleop9.4
End0.0
Third
5577
#29
4.97.1
14.47.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop5.0
End0.0
blue by 1.7
5008
#22
6.62.8
9.06.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop6.7
End0.0