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Red20
189618.0
570910.0
361822.8
Blue8
353714.6
522315.2
556011.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions472006080100120140160208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3618
#14
22.81.5
18.016.5
Auto0.1
Teleop22.7
End0.0
red by 7.5
5223
#23
15.21.4
9.48.0
Auto0.1
Teleop15.1
End0.0
Second
1896
#31
18.00.9
17.816.9
Auto0.5
Teleop17.5
End0.0
red by 3.4
3537
#33
14.61.4
10.89.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.8
End0.0
Third
5709
#34
10.014.7
21.77.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop10.2
End0.0
blue by 1.4
5560
#27
11.40.9
4.83.9
Auto0.4
Teleop11.0
End0.0