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Red6
522315.2
507214.1
171131.0
Blue55
498818.9
439126.4
569221.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions37530100150200655

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.01.7
24.322.6
Auto-0.4
Teleop31.4
End0.0
red by 4.6
26.40.7
20.821.5
Auto0.9
Teleop25.6
End0.0
Second
5223
#23
15.22.9
9.86.9
Auto0.1
Teleop15.1
End0.0
blue by 5.7
5692
#17
21.00.7
16.417.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.1
End0.0
Third
5072
#25
14.12.9
6.73.8
Auto0.2
Teleop13.9
End0.0
blue by 4.8
4988
#19
18.90.7
15.115.8
Auto0.5
Teleop18.4
End0.0