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Red40
439216.9
52479.5
361822.8
Blue40
368827.7
171131.0
523016.4
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions445501001504040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3618
#14
22.80.5
18.718.2
Auto0.1
Teleop22.7
End0.0
blue by 8.3
31.00.8
22.721.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop31.4
End0.0
Second
4392
#22
16.90.5
17.116.6
Auto1.2
Teleop15.6
End0.0
blue by 10.8
3688
#13
27.71.2
22.521.3
Auto0.3
Teleop27.4
End0.0
Third
5247
#39
9.50.4
11.110.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop9.8
End0.0
blue by 6.8
5230
#24
16.41.2
10.29.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.6
End0.0