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Red186
213760.0
191855.1
240530.4
Blue114
205452.5
400347.3
495624.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13711750100150200250186114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.00.8
57.958.7
Auto0.3
Teleop59.7
End0.0
red by 7.5
52.50.1
52.652.5
Auto11.1
Teleop41.4
End0.0
Second
55.10.8
53.053.8
Auto-1.0
Teleop56.1
End0.0
red by 7.8
47.30.1
47.447.3
Auto12.4
Teleop34.9
End0.0
Third
2405
#14
30.40.8
28.229.0
Auto0.8
Teleop29.5
End0.0
red by 5.7
4956
#24
24.60.1
24.724.6
Auto0.4
Teleop24.3
End0.0