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Red4
217522.8
326717.8
251810.6
Blue38
305524.5
46714.7
465614.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions44370100150438

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2175
#27
22.83.4
20.016.6
Auto0.7
Teleop22.1
End0.0
blue by 1.6
3055
#13
24.50.1
18.718.6
Auto0.2
Teleop24.3
End0.0
Second
3267
#19
17.83.4
14.311.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop18.0
End0.0
red by 3.2
4656
#43
14.50.1
13.012.9
Auto0.1
Teleop14.4
End0.0
Third
2518
#48
10.63.4
10.16.8
Auto0.8
Teleop9.9
End0.0
red by 5.9
4671
#56
4.70.1
7.47.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop4.9
End0.0