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Red100
288334.0
205235.6
247219.5
Blue101
481811.0
252632.4
9328.8
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87600100150200100101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.60.3
34.634.9
Auto1.1
Teleop34.5
End0.0
red by 3.2
32.40.8
30.431.2
Auto1.2
Teleop31.1
End0.0
Second
34.00.3
32.933.3
Auto1.1
Teleop32.9
End0.0
red by 5.2
93
#15
28.80.8
26.827.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.0
End0.0
Third
2472
#40
19.50.3
18.518.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.5
End0.0
red by 8.5
4818
#62
11.00.8
9.19.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop11.3
End0.0