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Red63
260623.0
369913.5
214310.5
Blue78
298911.6
320617.0
223926.7
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions444302060806378

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2606
#11
23.01.3
21.723.0
Auto0.8
Teleop22.1
End0.0
blue by 3.8
2239
#10
26.72.5
22.525.0
Auto1.2
Teleop25.6
End0.0
Second
3699
#31
13.51.3
12.213.5
Auto0.0
Teleop13.5
End0.0
blue by 3.5
3206
#35
17.01.9
15.117.0
Auto0.6
Teleop16.4
End0.0
Third
2143
#42
10.51.3
9.210.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop10.7
End0.0
blue by 1.1
2989
#52
11.62.5
9.111.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.9
End0.0