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Red116
165855.0
339711.6
418715.0
Blue108
109421.4
393758.9
432938.7
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70123050100150200250300116108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1658
Unranked
55.00.0
55.055.0
Auto-0.4
Teleop55.4
End0.0
blue by 3.9
3937
Unranked
58.90.0
58.958.9
Auto0.0
Teleop58.9
End0.0
Second
4187
Unranked
15.00.0
15.015.0
Auto0.5
Teleop14.4
End0.0
blue by 23.8
4329
Unranked
38.70.0
38.738.7
Auto-1.1
Teleop39.8
End0.0
Third
3397
Unranked
11.60.0
11.611.6
Auto-0.7
Teleop12.3
End0.0
blue by 9.8
1094
Unranked
21.40.0
21.421.4
Auto-0.7
Teleop22.1
End0.0