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Red40
193920.6
17696.0
216418.8
Blue16
287411.9
512615.6
198721.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions364401001504016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.60.1
15.415.5
Auto1.6
Teleop19.0
End0.0
blue by 0.7
1987
#26
21.32.3
20.718.3
Auto0.5
Teleop20.8
End0.0
Second
2164
#21
18.80.1
15.315.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop19.1
End0.0
red by 3.2
5126
#12
15.62.3
14.612.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.9
End0.0
Third
1769
#52
6.00.1
7.98.1
Auto0.2
Teleop5.8
End0.0
blue by 5.9
2874
#37
11.92.3
8.96.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.1
End0.0