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Red133
165857.1
198662.8
435615.5
Blue111
120847.6
278342.7
415426.7
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13311050150200250133111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.80.0
62.462.3
Auto8.2
Teleop54.7
End0.0
red by 15.2
47.60.1
47.747.6
Auto0.7
Teleop46.9
End0.0
Second
57.10.0
56.756.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop57.3
End0.0
red by 14.4
42.70.1
42.842.7
Auto3.1
Teleop39.6
End0.0
Third
4356
#27
15.50.0
15.115.1
Auto0.8
Teleop14.8
End0.0
blue by 11.2
4154
#12
26.70.1
26.826.7
Auto1.1
Teleop25.7
End0.0