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Red163
165857.1
198662.8
435615.5
Blue117
120847.6
278342.7
415426.7
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13310950150200250163117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.80.5
62.362.8
Auto8.2
Teleop54.7
End0.0
red by 15.2
47.60.0
47.647.6
Auto0.7
Teleop46.9
End0.0
Second
57.10.5
56.757.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop57.3
End0.0
red by 14.4
42.70.0
42.742.7
Auto3.1
Teleop39.6
End0.0
Third
4356
#27
15.50.5
15.115.5
Auto0.8
Teleop14.8
End0.0
blue by 11.2
4154
#12
26.70.0
26.726.7
Auto1.1
Teleop25.7
End0.0