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Red126
181135.5
114336.6
121860.8
Blue114
568428.1
108945.4
21945.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1459950200250126114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.80.8
68.867.9
Auto0.6
Teleop60.2
End0.0
red by 15.2
219
#25
45.60.5
46.647.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop45.8
End0.0
Second
1143
#31
36.60.8
38.337.5
Auto1.2
Teleop35.3
End0.0
blue by 8.8
1089
#10
45.40.5
34.935.4
Auto0.6
Teleop44.8
End0.0
Third
1811
#39
35.50.8
35.935.0
Auto-0.0
Teleop35.5
End0.0
red by 7.4
5684
#33
28.10.5
28.228.7
Auto-0.0
Teleop28.1
End0.0