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Red90
291420.5
497725.5
440121.2
Blue120
541527.0
347831.9
478213.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5054020408010012014090120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.52.5
17.920.3
Auto0.6
Teleop24.9
End0.0
blue by 6.4
31.94.3
26.630.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop32.0
End0.0
Second
21.22.5
17.419.9
Auto0.0
Teleop21.1
End0.0
blue by 5.9
27.04.3
20.524.8
Auto0.2
Teleop26.9
End0.0
Third
20.52.5
17.419.9
Auto0.1
Teleop20.4
End0.0
red by 7.3
4782
#16
13.24.3
8.412.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.3
End0.0