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Red20
43719.6
473516.4
57167.8
Blue8
352613.5
379419.4
435514.1
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29540204080100120140208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.40.9
14.713.8
Auto0.0
Teleop16.4
End0.0
blue by 2.9
19.42.9
19.216.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.4
End0.0
Second
4371
#30
9.60.9
8.77.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop9.7
End0.0
blue by 4.5
4355
#20
14.12.9
16.213.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.2
End0.0
Third
5716
#35
7.80.9
10.79.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop7.8
End0.0
blue by 5.7
3526
#17
13.52.9
16.413.4
Auto0.3
Teleop13.2
End0.0