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Red116
551124.3
205922.2
122532.9
Blue101
382216.6
141313.7
333622.2
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67330204080100120140160116101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.92.6
27.630.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop33.1
End0.0
red by 10.8
22.23.8
18.021.8
Auto0.1
Teleop22.1
End0.0
Second
24.33.5
19.623.0
Auto0.2
Teleop24.1
End0.0
red by 7.7
3822
#12
16.64.1
12.116.2
Auto0.0
Teleop16.5
End0.0
Third
22.22.6
16.919.5
Auto0.4
Teleop21.8
End0.0
red by 8.6
1413
#33
13.74.1
9.013.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.7
End0.0