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Red176
17247.5
88541.9
12651.7
Blue169
404848.0
173541.6
112446.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13010950100150200176169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
126
#16
51.72.2
48.250.4
Auto0.6
Teleop51.1
End0.0
red by 3.7
4048
#27
48.02.6
39.842.4
Auto1.4
Teleop46.6
End0.0
Second
172
#19
47.52.2
44.346.5
Auto1.5
Teleop46.0
End0.0
red by 1.4
1124
#34
46.12.6
39.742.3
Auto2.1
Teleop44.0
End0.0
Third
885
#40
41.92.2
39.341.5
Auto0.7
Teleop41.2
End0.0
red by 0.4
1735
#43
41.62.6
37.039.7
Auto2.6
Teleop39.0
End0.0