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Red126
17558.8
46730.7
21329.4
Blue206
19581.3
23650.8
216848.6
14%Model gave it86%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93161050200250300126206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
175
#6
58.81.2
50.852.1
Auto2.8
Teleop56.1
End0.0
blue by 22.4
195
#2
81.32.5
77.680.1
Auto-1.9
Teleop83.1
End0.0
Second
467
#53
30.71.2
26.427.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop30.9
End0.0
blue by 20.1
236
#22
50.82.5
41.343.8
Auto7.7
Teleop43.2
End0.0
Third
213
#45
29.41.2
30.331.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop29.5
End0.0
blue by 19.2
2168
#26
48.62.5
37.139.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop49.1
End0.0