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Red50
109421.4
331033.5
551120.8
Blue202
198380.7
331446.8
276129.5
13%Model gave it87%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8714205010020050202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3310
#72
33.52.4
46.644.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop33.6
End0.0
blue by 47.2
1983
#12
80.73.2
84.787.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop81.2
End0.0
Second
1094
#74
21.42.4
27.525.1
Auto-0.7
Teleop22.1
End0.0
blue by 25.4
3314
#21
46.83.2
34.637.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop47.1
End0.0
Third
5511
#71
20.83.0
24.321.3
Auto0.0
Teleop20.8
End0.0
blue by 8.7
2761
#38
29.53.2
18.822.0
Auto0.4
Teleop29.1
End0.0