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Red134
260764.3
548939.3
383832.5
Blue118
454122.8
29534.2
331446.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12880050100150200134118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2607
#20
64.30.4
63.864.2
Auto0.2
Teleop64.1
End0.0
red by 17.5
3314
#21
46.81.4
46.047.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop47.1
End0.0
Second
5489
#27
39.30.4
30.030.5
Auto0.6
Teleop38.7
End0.0
red by 5.1
295
#50
34.21.4
29.831.2
Auto0.5
Teleop33.7
End0.0
Third
3838
#30
32.50.4
31.231.7
Auto1.8
Teleop30.6
End0.0
red by 9.7
4541
#64
22.81.4
14.616.0
Auto0.2
Teleop22.6
End0.0