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Red113
432222.8
276129.5
317147.8
Blue114
454122.8
552921.5
401335.0
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96520150113114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3171
#33
47.81.0
51.452.4
Auto0.4
Teleop47.4
End0.0
red by 12.8
4013
#37
35.02.7
26.529.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop35.2
End0.0
Second
2761
#38
29.51.0
22.623.6
Auto0.4
Teleop29.1
End0.0
red by 6.7
4541
#64
22.82.7
16.018.6
Auto0.2
Teleop22.6
End0.0
Third
4322
#63
22.81.0
18.619.6
Auto0.3
Teleop22.5
End0.0
red by 1.3
5529
#42
21.52.7
18.421.1
Auto-0.7
Teleop22.1
End0.0