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Red4
50129.4
349910.4
492519.9
Blue92
31925.9
393040.4
455516.2
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions55780100150200250492

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
501
#33
29.42.5
23.420.8
Auto0.8
Teleop28.6
End0.0
blue by 11.0
40.40.7
35.836.5
Auto1.2
Teleop39.2
End0.0
Second
4925
#31
19.92.5
21.018.5
Auto0.7
Teleop19.1
End0.0
blue by 6.1
319
#22
25.90.7
23.324.1
Auto6.8
Teleop19.1
End0.0
Third
3499
#40
10.42.5
16.513.9
Auto0.5
Teleop10.0
End0.0
blue by 5.8
4555
#29
16.20.7
18.018.7
Auto0.5
Teleop15.6
End0.0