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Red106
550626.2
346740.1
124710.0
Blue86
512240.2
88536.7
492919.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54522040608010010686

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.12.9
23.826.7
Auto0.2
Teleop39.9
End0.0
blue by 0.1
40.21.5
23.525.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop40.5
End0.0
Second
5506
#17
26.22.9
23.326.1
Auto0.5
Teleop25.7
End0.0
blue by 10.5
885
#7
36.71.5
19.721.2
Auto1.6
Teleop35.1
End0.0
Third
1247
#38
10.02.9
7.610.4
Auto-0.7
Teleop10.7
End0.0
blue by 9.0
4929
#23
19.01.5
12.514.0
Auto-0.6
Teleop19.6
End0.0