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Red34
32132.3
209512.7
75212.5
Blue42
428127.1
5558.0
446025.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57562040801003442

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
321
#19
32.31.2
30.229.0
Auto0.2
Teleop32.1
End0.0
red by 5.3
4281
#21
27.10.9
23.822.9
Auto0.7
Teleop26.4
End0.0
Second
2095
#30
12.71.2
13.912.7
Auto-0.5
Teleop13.2
End0.0
blue by 12.4
4460
#20
25.10.9
31.530.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop25.6
End0.0
Third
752
#27
12.51.5
13.011.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.7
End0.0
red by 4.4
555
#33
8.00.9
5.04.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.2
End0.0