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Red24
351519.5
249517.6
22321.7
Blue9
31632.4
179112.4
36071.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions42400206080100249

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
223
#13
21.70.9
16.415.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop22.1
End0.0
blue by 10.7
316
#11
32.41.8
35.033.2
Auto0.8
Teleop31.6
End0.0
Second
3515
#20
19.51.5
8.26.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.6
End0.0
red by 7.2
1791
#29
12.42.9
9.56.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.6
End0.0
Third
2495
#24
17.60.9
17.116.2
Auto0.7
Teleop16.9
End0.0
red by 16.4
3607
#36
1.21.8
-0.4-2.2
Auto-0.0
Teleop1.2
End0.0