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Red78
22321.7
4119.4
180716.0
Blue90
351519.5
511317.7
315119.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48460204060801007890

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
223
#13
21.71.5
17.819.3
Auto-0.4
Teleop22.1
End0.0
red by 2.2
3515
#20
19.52.9
17.520.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.6
End0.0
Second
41
#21
19.41.5
16.417.9
Auto0.1
Teleop19.3
End0.0
blue by 0.2
3151
#19
19.52.7
18.721.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.8
End0.0
Third
1807
#18
16.02.0
14.216.1
Auto0.2
Teleop15.8
End0.0
blue by 1.7
5113
#31
17.72.0
13.515.6
Auto0.2
Teleop17.5
End0.0