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Red23
530616.7
501211.9
298413.7
Blue91
116022.7
513411.8
182829.9
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions405101001502002503003502391

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5306
#35DQ
16.71.7
13.411.6
Auto1.0
Teleop15.7
End0.0
blue by 13.3
29.92.0
23.925.9
Auto0.3
Teleop29.6
End0.0
Second
2984
#30
13.71.7
17.415.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop13.9
End0.0
blue by 9.0
1160
#22
22.72.0
20.722.7
Auto0.4
Teleop22.3
End0.0
Third
5012
#41
11.91.0
12.811.8
Auto0.8
Teleop11.1
End0.0
red by 0.1
5134
#37
11.82.0
6.88.8
Auto1.2
Teleop10.6
End0.0