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Red64
128527.7
140532.8
34621.9
Blue4
315726.5
318116.9
151141.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8180204060100120644

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1405
Unranked
32.80.0
32.832.8
Auto1.1
Teleop31.8
End0.0
blue by 9.0
1511
Unranked
41.80.0
41.841.8
Auto0.1
Teleop41.7
End0.0
Second
1285
Unranked
27.70.0
27.727.7
Auto0.2
Teleop27.5
End0.0
red by 1.3
3157
Unranked
26.50.0
26.526.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.6
End0.0
Third
346
Unranked
21.90.0
21.921.9
Auto0.6
Teleop21.3
End0.0
red by 4.9
3181
Unranked
16.90.0
16.916.9
Auto-0.9
Teleop17.8
End0.0