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Red44
494010.4
412117.3
45113.9
Blue8
260316.6
359111.5
29112.6
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39270206080100120448

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4121
#22
17.30.5
18.519.0
Auto-0.5
Teleop17.8
End0.0
red by 0.7
2603
#30
16.61.1
13.812.8
Auto1.6
Teleop15.1
End0.0
Second
451
#27
13.90.3
11.511.7
Auto0.3
Teleop13.6
End0.0
red by 1.3
291
#49
12.61.1
8.27.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.0
End0.0
Third
4940
#52
10.40.5
8.38.8
Auto0.8
Teleop9.5
End0.0
blue by 1.2
3591
#43
11.51.1
7.56.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.7
End0.0