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Red50
205112.0
159012.5
198731.6
Blue84
159245.9
260316.6
494010.4
43%Model gave it57%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions506601001502002503005084

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1987
#12
31.60.2
29.729.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop31.7
End0.0
blue by 14.3
45.90.9
41.542.4
Auto5.0
Teleop40.9
End0.0
Second
1590
#40
12.50.3
12.812.5
Auto0.2
Teleop12.3
End0.0
blue by 4.2
2603
#30
16.60.9
15.716.6
Auto1.6
Teleop15.1
End0.0
Third
2051
#24
12.00.2
12.312.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop12.3
End0.0
red by 1.6
4940
#52
10.41.3
9.110.4
Auto0.8
Teleop9.5
End0.0