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Red20
317917.7
20046.5
400514.8
Blue36
509821.3
554811.8
316314.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions44442060801002036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3179
#33
17.71.2
18.917.7
Auto0.2
Teleop17.6
End0.0
blue by 3.6
5098
#22
21.30.6
20.019.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop21.3
End0.0
Second
4005
#30
14.81.7
16.514.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.9
End0.0
red by 0.4
3163
#41
14.40.9
15.214.4
Auto0.1
Teleop14.3
End0.0
Third
2004
#44
6.51.7
8.26.5
Auto0.0
Teleop6.5
End0.0
blue by 5.3
5548
#32
11.80.9
12.611.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.8
End0.0