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Red100
400134.7
18835.9
299410.6
Blue60
128513.8
491425.3
86511.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7543010015020010060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
188
#2
35.90.6
33.133.6
Auto0.3
Teleop35.6
End0.0
red by 10.6
4914
#12
25.30.2
25.125.3
Auto0.3
Teleop25.0
End0.0
Second
34.70.6
31.932.5
Auto1.3
Teleop33.4
End0.0
red by 20.9
1285
#23
13.80.2
13.613.8
Auto0.4
Teleop13.4
End0.0
Third
2994
#42
10.60.6
7.88.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop11.0
End0.0
blue by 0.8
865
#37
11.40.2
11.211.4
Auto0.5
Teleop10.9
End0.0